2,512 posts
|
Post by zahidf on May 23, 2024 7:49:54 GMT
Anybody else have a hunch this'll be a hung parliament? Yes, outside of social media echo chambers I don't see much enthusiasm for either party and Labour have the trust issue on spending. What do they stand for and how will they pay for it? The only reason labour will get in is simply by not being conservatives, rather than offering something truly worthwhile. I'm not convinced it's going to be quite the landslide some expect. I can see smaller parties getting more votes. In some ways I think Rishi gets some unfair flack. Whoever took over from Boris was always going to have a poisoned chalice. The rot set in a long time ago and this will be a vote on the last decade rather than just Rishi himself. It wouldn't surprise me if Rishi can see what's coming in the world and thinks 'f*** that, I'm out of here' Rishi was Boris's chancellor: he helped poison that chalice! He replaced Truss anyway, not Johnson |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 8:14:19 GMT
Yes, outside of social media echo chambers I don't see much enthusiasm for either party and Labour have the trust issue on spending. What do they stand for and how will they pay for it? The only reason labour will get in is simply by not being conservatives, rather than offering something truly worthwhile. I'm not convinced it's going to be quite the landslide some expect. I can see smaller parties getting more votes. In some ways I think Rishi gets some unfair flack. Whoever took over from Boris was always going to have a poisoned chalice. The rot set in a long time ago and this will be a vote on the last decade rather than just Rishi himself. It wouldn't surprise me if Rishi can see what's coming in the world and thinks 'f*** that, I'm out of here' Rishi was Boris's chancellor: he helped poison that chalice! He replaced Truss anyway, not Johnson Oh yeah forgot her. Still doesn't change my point, it's a vote on a decade rather than just him. It's not like everyone was satisfied with the government until he came in. One thing I'll give him is in a chaotic government he was a relative level head. Even Martin the money man said although he didn't agree with Rishis policies all the time, he could at least see his thinking and understand where he was coming from. Something he couldn't say about the rest of Boris's government. |
|
|
|
Post by talkingheads on May 23, 2024 9:08:27 GMT
|
|
5,120 posts
|
Post by Phantom of London on May 23, 2024 9:32:11 GMT
Oh it certainly wasn't a Gene Kelly moment for Rishi. With £££££££ being spent by Boris Johnson on a bespoke Downing Street press briefing room in Downing Street, why stand in the rain, with "things can only get better" being blasted out, when Rishi could have stood in a dry press room that is presumably sound proof, an aide could've brought him a nice bacon sarnie.
"Things can only get wetter," the announcement was a wash out.
|
|
5,031 posts
Member is Online
|
Post by Someone in a tree on May 23, 2024 9:38:36 GMT
And thats Sky? Not even the 'biasist bbc' surley, there must be a backstory here |
|
5,120 posts
|
Post by Phantom of London on May 23, 2024 9:48:08 GMT
There is no clear path for a Tory election victory, they might pick up some reform votes if they have a flight going to Rwanda, but no way to win an election. They're going to get obliterated along with the SNP, there will be no hung parliament. The right wing Conservatives are going over to the dreadful Reform party and the moderate Tories going to Labour/Liberal Democrats. I could even see a path for the Liberals Democrats to become a the official opposition. Labour targets seats are not Liberal Democrats and vice versa, they are all Conservatives and so with Liberals/Labour working together, it is not in each other interests to stand on each others toes and with tactical voting, it is very possible that the Liberals could form the opposition. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourwww.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat |
|
8,211 posts
|
Post by alece10 on May 23, 2024 13:07:00 GMT
Anybody else have a hunch this'll be a hung parliament? Maybe, or even worse the tories get in again. My worry is that people will think that labour have such a lead it doesn't matter if they vote but you can be sure the tories will be dragging their members to the polls on their death beds to get their votes. So if people are complacent and don't vote we could see them sneaking back in. |
|
|
|
Post by talkingheads on May 23, 2024 13:10:55 GMT
Anybody else have a hunch this'll be a hung parliament? Maybe, or even worse the tories get in again. My worry is that people will think that labour have such a lead it doesn't matter if they vote but you can be sure the tories will be dragging their members to the polls on their death beds to get their votes. So if people are complacent and don't vote we could see them sneaking back in. After the local elections, there isn't even a remote chance of the Tories getting back in. |
|
8,211 posts
|
Post by alece10 on May 23, 2024 13:12:28 GMT
Maybe, or even worse the tories get in again. My worry is that people will think that labour have such a lead it doesn't matter if they vote but you can be sure the tories will be dragging their members to the polls on their death beds to get their votes. So if people are complacent and don't vote we could see them sneaking back in. After the local elections, there isn't even a remote chance of the Tories getting back in. Put it this way, I'm not placing a bet! |
|
3,559 posts
Member is Online
|
Post by ceebee on May 23, 2024 13:38:31 GMT
The one thing that will prevent Labour getting a majority is complacency. They still havent outlined a viable election proposition, which is odd as I am sure there are very many floating voters who are totally apathetic towards politics and politicians and just want to believe in something or somebody. It'll be interesting to see how the next six weeks play out, but I don't think it'll be anywhere close to a Labour landslide.
Tories have core voters who simply won't contemplate voting anything other than Conservative. Likewise Labour have their steadfast supporters, but it's the floating voters who are looking for the next centerist Blair-type PM or a safe haven party that will determine the outcome. Trust in politics and politicians has been decimated, and it is far more likely that to me that voters will say "find a way to work together (or live with the consequences of your own lack of ideas and inertia)" and that we will end up with a hung parliament mish-mash trifle of parties, politicians and policies. In a sense, I think this is what most politicians want because it excuses them from blame and they can rack up five years of service whilst the country stagnates even further.
|
|
952 posts
|
Post by vdcni on May 23, 2024 13:53:21 GMT
They have been consistently under 25% in the polls for a while now. They poll under Labour on every policy area.
Results have indicated that the swing against the Tories is likely to be higher in areas that Labour need to win and tactical voting is also provably going to be high without Corbyn and the memory of the coalition fading. Labour also seem likely to regain seats in Scotland from the SNP.
They have to guard against complacency but the indications are for a decent sized Labour majority at least.
I also highly doubt many, or really even any, Labour or Tory politicians would rather have a hung Parliament over a win for their party.
|
|
5,120 posts
|
Post by Phantom of London on May 23, 2024 14:17:38 GMT
Brace yourself for this weekend when a flurry of mps that will resign and not run and maybe several might cross the floor, it’s the last chance to do so.
I am also surprised that former Tory ‘betrayed’ mps such as Anna Sourby, Dominic Grieve, Heidi Allen, Dominic Gauke, Phillip Hammond, Justine Greening and Rory Stewart etc, haven’t joined Labour/Liberals Democrats and running as their candidates.
|
|
5,031 posts
Member is Online
|
Post by Someone in a tree on May 23, 2024 14:59:19 GMT
With all this talk of a Labour victory, i wonder if andrew lloyd webber will talk of leaving the country again
|
|
3,040 posts
|
Post by crowblack on May 23, 2024 15:06:35 GMT
Smaller parties may do better than usual but there's not the slightest indication it will be significant. The feeling on the radio today was that Farage going off to the US to serve Trump rather than his right-wing party back here will help the Tory vote. I'm in a region with low turnout generally so it'll be interesting to see who gets the voters out. In a vox pop in Bury on our local news yesterday no-one seemed very enthusiastic about anyone. |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 18:12:17 GMT
Starmer has the authority and stature to be seen as an election winning PM but do the die hard socialists like him. Some will stick to their principles rather than be in power with watered down more centrist policies. George Galloway and which seats his party target will be interesting. Will Nigel Farage suddenly be front and centre again these two can certainly be disruptors to the main two parties. Galloway would be lucky to win any seats, he'll probably end up losing his own seat! They may not win seats but could take votes away from other parties in targetted areas as they will likely just put up candidates in certain seats. |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 18:16:14 GMT
Journalists for these events need accreditation so that isn't a good sign when they get removed. The same for them filming outside Number 10 that has to be agreed. I guess there is a list of accredited people, I've never heard of an individual from one oranisation not being given credentials because the PM didn't like them personally or there was history between them. |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 18:19:39 GMT
Brace yourself for this weekend when a flurry of mps that will resign and not run and maybe several might cross the floor, it’s the last chance to do so. I am also surprised that former Tory ‘betrayed’ mps such as Anna Sourby, Dominic Grieve, Heidi Allen, Dominic Gauke, Phillip Hammond, Justine Greening and Rory Stewart etc, haven’t joined Labour/Liberals Democrats and running as their candidates. I'd imagine Labour have a fair few takers for their candidates. They would likely have liked someone such as Chuka Umunna back rather than a former Tory MP. One name to watch might be David Miliband he may not take a seat but could possibly return as a Lord like David Cameron did as Sir Kier would probably need some experience in his cabinet. |
|
|
|
Post by talkingheads on May 23, 2024 21:22:06 GMT
|
|
5,120 posts
|
Post by Phantom of London on May 23, 2024 22:49:35 GMT
Brace yourself for this weekend when a flurry of mps that will resign and not run and maybe several might cross the floor, it’s the last chance to do so. I am also surprised that former Tory ‘betrayed’ mps such as Anna Sourby, Dominic Grieve, Heidi Allen, Dominic Gauke, Phillip Hammond, Justine Greening and Rory Stewart etc, haven’t joined Labour/Liberals Democrats and running as their candidates. I'd imagine Labour have a fair few takers for their candidates. They would likely have liked someone such as Chuka Umunna back rather than a former Tory MP. One name to watch might be David Miliband he may not take a seat but could possibly return as a Lord like David Cameron did as Sir Kier would probably need some experience in his cabinet. I would think it would be a great coup to get former Conservatives to come over, especially for the Liberals, their issue though is that they have only 2 safe seats. So not encouraging for anyone to cross the floor to them. |
|
2,422 posts
|
Post by theatreian on May 24, 2024 9:04:01 GMT
|
|
925 posts
|
Post by karloscar on May 24, 2024 9:09:04 GMT
With Labour parachuting English candidates into Scottish seats due to lack of viable local candidates, gaining seats in Scotland may not be the walk in the park they seem to think.
|
|
7,251 posts
|
Post by Jon on May 24, 2024 11:39:51 GMT
I would probably say I think Labour will win but if you want an election comparison, look at the 2022 Australian elections where Labor won because people were fed up of the Liberals, they had a similar issue of revolving PMs for much of their tenure as well though to a lesser extent.
|
|
3,040 posts
|
Post by crowblack on May 24, 2024 13:37:21 GMT
I certainly don't feel or sense much active enthusiasm for the current Labour leadership team, and I think they must realise that given their campaign slogan - 'change' rather than a dynamic, substantial message. |
|
2,512 posts
|
Post by zahidf on May 24, 2024 19:00:44 GMT
Government standing down
If all the MPs I want to stay up late to see lose decide instead to quit I won’t be happy. Come back and lose you cowards.
Hopefully Mogg will lose🤞
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 24, 2024 19:14:55 GMT
There is no clear path for a Tory election victory, they might pick up some reform votes if they have a flight going to Rwanda, but no way to win an election. They're going to get obliterated along with the SNP, there will be no hung parliament. The right wing Conservatives are going over to the dreadful Reform party and the moderate Tories going to Labour/Liberal Democrats. I could even see a path for the Liberals Democrats to become a the official opposition. Labour targets seats are not Liberal Democrats and vice versa, they are all Conservatives and so with Liberals/Labour working together, it is not in each other interests to stand on each others toes and with tactical voting, it is very possible that the Liberals could form the opposition. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourwww.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democratEven in 1997 when the Tories were pretty much wiped out the Liberals only picked up 46 seats to the Tories 165. The most seats the LD have won in recent years is 62 in 2005. They currently have 15 seats so even if they take back some they lost to the Tories in recent years and those long standing Scottish seats that the SNP won in 15,17 and 19. I'd be surprised if they had more than 35 to 40 seats. They should get back 3rd party status from SNP but to get into official opposition they would need to increase their current seats by 1000%. Also the first past the post system has never favoured the LD often their number of seats wasn't much more than their share of the vote even when it was a very respectable 20% plus. |
|
