General Election - 4th July 2024

[londonmzfitz]

Voted at 8.30 in the Village, couple of people leaving, couple of people arriving, but I was the only one in there when I voted.
As I suspected, Boston & Skegness - "Reform UK are forecast as 54.6% likely to overturn a Conservative" according to www.parallelparliament.co.uk/

[mkb]

Jul 4, 2024 13:39:27 GMT londonmzfitz said:

Has this link been posted? Did I miss it?

tactical.vote/

StopTheTories.vote is the one that seems to have traction.

I wish the organisers of these various websites would align their recommendations for constituencies that are difficult to call for second place.

My neighbouring constituency of Hinckley & Bosworth has a recommendation of Labour on tactical.vote and Lib Dem on the other. Previous local results and polling evidence would back Lib Dem there, so I wonder if there are Labour vested interests involved in tactical.vote?

[Phantom of London]

Jul 4, 2024 13:49:27 GMT londonmzfitz said:

Voted at 8.30 in the Village, couple of people leaving, couple of people arriving, but I was the only one in there when I voted.
As I suspected, Boston & Skegness - "Reform UK are forecast as 54.6% likely to overturn a Conservative" according to www.parallelparliament.co.uk/

If Lincolnshire is where you live, it is the most right wing county along with Essex. South Holland and the Deeping was/is the safest Tory seat. Amersham and Chesham was once the safest Tory seat not too long ago, it went yellow in a by-election three years ago and is likely to stay yellow.

[Rozzi Rainbow]

I live in Rishi's constituency and this year we have 13 candidates - I had to unfold the ballot slip, it was as long as an A4 piece of paper. We have some interesting options on there, but some hadn't even bothered to send us a leaflet, which makes me wonder why they're even standing if they can't be bothered to even try and make us aware of what they will do for us.

I was debating whether to vote sensibly or make a protest vote, and I decide that as this will be my only chance - I did indeed vote for Count Binface!! I'll have many more options to vote sensibly in future elections, and this one won't make any difference as Rishi is a shoo-in to win, as our MP anyway if nothing else.

[n1david]

Jul 4, 2024 17:24:52 GMT Rozzi Rainbow said:

I live in Rishi's constituency and this year we have 13 candidates - I had to unfold the ballot slip, it was as long as an A4 piece of paper.

I remember one year I was on polling station duty and a couple were leaving and they were discussing who they voted for... the guy said he voted for UKIP, the woman was shocked and said UKIP weren't on her ballot paper - turned out that she hadn't fully unfolded the ballot paper and UKIP were below the fold... she returned inside to demand that she get a chance to recast her vote, which was obviously refused. The two of them left muttering about fixing the ballot. Maybe Reform have learned from this and selected candidates with surnames from the first half of the alphabet...

[crowblack]

Jul 4, 2024 15:14:42 GMT mkb said:

Jul 4, 2024 13:39:27 GMT londonmzfitz said:

Has this link been posted? Did I miss it?

tactical.vote/

StopTheTories.vote is the one that seems to have traction.

I wish the organisers of these various websites would align their recommendations for constituencies that are difficult to call for second place.

My neighbouring constituency of Hinckley & Bosworth has a recommendation of Labour on tactical.vote and Lib Dem on the other. Previous local results and polling evidence would back Lib Dem there, so I wonder if there are Labour vested interests involved in tactical.vote?

There was a degree or organised tactical voting in 1997 - I remember my very Labour uncle, who lived in a safe Tory seat in Surrey, went out canvassing for the Lib Dems. This was the period when Blair had been courting Ashdown (or vice versa) and Blair was reportedly hoping for less of a majority because he wanted more Lib Dem involvement to keep New Labour in the centre / pro-EU. 

We voted at lunchtime and the staff said it had been quite busy - 7 people in there while we were in (including us), where the population served is around 2,000. They said not many youngsters yet though. My 18 year old relative forgot to register.  

[Rozzi Rainbow]

Jul 4, 2024 17:57:43 GMT n1david said:

Jul 4, 2024 17:24:52 GMT Rozzi Rainbow said:

I live in Rishi's constituency and this year we have 13 candidates - I had to unfold the ballot slip, it was as long as an A4 piece of paper.

I remember one year I was on polling station duty and a couple were leaving and they were discussing who they voted for... the guy said he voted for UKIP, the woman was shocked and said UKIP weren't on her ballot paper - turned out that she hadn't fully unfolded the ballot paper and UKIP were below the fold... she returned inside to demand that she get a chance to recast her vote, which was obviously refused. The two of them left muttering about fixing the ballot. Maybe Reform have learned from this and selected candidates with surnames from the first half of the alphabet...

Oh dear, that doesn't bode well for Sunak, Rishi 😂

[blamerobots]

Exit poll is out.

[danb]

Excellent numbers in the exit poll. Perhaps we’re back into actually caring about each other again. Fingers crossed.

[alece10]

Exit polls can and have been very wrong in the past but I have everything crossed that they are right.

[crowblack]

Disturbing, though - doesn't feel like 1997, positive, optimistic - one of the channels said Reform had higher voting numbers than the Lib Dems. They won't get the MPs because of FPTP, but bodes ill for the future and the direction the Tories/Right reshape themselves after the election.

[blamerobots]

It's optimistic with a tinge of "the struggle isn't over yet" for me; we've still got a way to go but there's been some steps taken in the right direction. Some steps back, too. But more steps forward.

Time to wait for what it looks like in my constituency.

[talkingheads]

13 reform, are they serious? I thought that bigoted racist joke of a party would struggle to get more than 1.

[danb]

Jul 4, 2024 21:31:51 GMT blamerobots said:

It's optimistic with a tinge of "the struggle isn't over yet" for me; we've still got a way to go but there's been some steps taken in the right direction. Some steps back, too. But more steps forward.

Time to wait for what it looks like in my constituency.

Don’t say Steps are involved. I couldn’t bear H getting his mug in somewhere else!

[Phantom of London]

This is bittersweet for me, glad to see Labour do well, I was hoping the Liberals would have made the opposition. Not pleased that Reform have won any seat.

Cannot find a map by constituency at the moment?

But saying that taking the Labour and Liberal prediction together equals unambiguously says that Brexit was a total disaster.

[danb]

Jul 4, 2024 21:41:00 GMT talkingheads said:

13 reform, are they serious? I thought that bigoted racist joke of a party would struggle to get more than 1.

It’ll be all the South East coastal areas ‘over-run’ with benefit scrounging immigrants, taking our jobs, pillaging our women and being entirely responsible for everything the Tories are actually to blame for. 🙄🤦‍♂️

[crowblack]

Jul 4, 2024 21:48:49 GMT Phantom of London said:

But saying that taking the Labour and Liberal prediction together equals unambiguously says that Brexit was a total disaster.

From the exit poll numbers of individual voters, Tory and Reform numbers combined are higher than Labour. This won't be reflected in the number of MPs. As someone on the Left I think that's a relief, but there will be greater pressure for electoral reform from both ends of the spectrum now and tbh that is more democratically fair.

[Phantom of London]

The two seats in so far and both in the infamous ‘red wall’ have gone to Labour - but a concern how well that the Racist Party is doing.

[Phantom of London]

Jul 4, 2024 22:25:41 GMT crowblack said:

Jul 4, 2024 21:48:49 GMT Phantom of London said:

But saying that taking the Labour and Liberal prediction together equals unambiguously says that Brexit was a total disaster.

From the exit poll numbers of individual voters, Tory and Reform numbers combined are higher than Labour. This won't be reflected in the number of MPs. As someone on the Left I think that's a relief, but there will be greater pressure for electoral reform from both ends of the spectrum now and tbh that is more democratically fair.

Okay I don’t disagree, but wonder if you add the Liberal and the several SNP votes to Labour together if that would close the gap.

I did say in 2019 and said it as a devout remainer that if the economy done well, Boris would go on to win another election and Brexit would be judged as a success, that didn’t happen - The pound crashed, which led to hyper inflation - Boris spectacularly fell off his horse at the third fence. Then Liz Truss had a complete meltdown, that causes interest rates to sore - she didn’t even get on the horse.

As for Rishi Sunak he was asked to smile on a bed of nails that was made by Truss and Johnson - he had to win the Grand National on Petruchio’s diseased horse.

[aspieandy]

Fascinating stuff. Will take a while to understand the cross undercurrents.

People here talking about Reform as "bigoted racists" though we will see the biggest group making a difference for Reform are 18-25 year olds. At the same time, that group is making  difference in the growth of th Greens.

Also, Kier Starmer won't get within a million voters of Corbyn in 2017. This is significant as there will be a serious conversation about a new socialist alternative if Starmer does not dramatically improve cost of living issues for low paid/low skilled.

p.s. I'm told Corbyn has won Islington North though won't be ready to declare for a couple of hours.

[d'James]

*Keir

[Phantom of London]

Hartlepool was suggest to go to the Racist Party, thankfully they didn’t come close.

[crowblack]

Labour losing some names / potential front benchers.

[crowblack]

Talk on the Radio 4 / 5 coverage of the role of WhatsApp in campaigning amongst religious communities, including hearing just now from Wes Streeting that a deepfake pretending to be a recording of him being racist (or something along those lines) was being circulated by Whatsapp in his constituency, and he came close to losing his seat.

[vdcni]

As I thought, my constituency comfortably stayed Tory, Lib Dems and Labour with very similar vote levels behind them.