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Post by aspieandy on Jun 23, 2024 19:10:03 GMT
Pretty extraordinary situation here. As some may have seen, earlier this week the Chair of the constituency resigned after seen campaigning for JC. Eight Islington borough wards are in the Islington North consituency. At today's rally and canvassing at the little park at the end of my road, you could see the scale of support among Ward chair's, deputy chairs, Secretaries, etc. There are very few left now in the Labour Party - if you camapaign for JC you either resign from the Party or you will be expelled. All these people have been in the Labour Party for decades - 3, 4, 5 decades. Now all locked out and cancelled. Labour has to rebuild from scratch here, or find a solution. Decent, grassroots people. The weird thing for me I was purged 2 years ago and the people who did that have now resigned in solidarity with JC. At least we know where everyone truly stands now. It's been the most heart-warming day. It's like everyone has come home. Plus Len Mcclusky have me a big hug  |
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Post by n1david on Jun 23, 2024 19:27:29 GMT
The question is whether the greater electorate follows Labour activists, and I'm not sure that they will. I'm not intimately familiar with Islington North as a constituency, but I lived for years in Islington South & Finsbury, so I'm familiar with Islington politics. I think JC will keep the seat, but I think it's going to be closer than a lot of his fans think it will be. I'm absolutely not a fan of the Labour candidate in Islington North, but then I'm not a JC fan either... thankfully I'm now in Monmouthshire and am campaigning hard to take a Cabinet scalp in David TC Davies.
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Post by aspieandy on Jun 23, 2024 20:36:02 GMT
* not "Labour" activists. That's the point, in a sense: 'cancelled Labour'  Come what may, Starmer has an avalanche of a majority; so to voters here: is the value for you - in your vote - in contributing to that record majority, or is it in contributing to holding that mandate to account i.e. in speaking truth to that power.
Becasue those new, young aspirational Labour MPs looking at 10-15 years in Westminster will not be rocking the boat when they have one eye on promotions and eventually junior ministerial positions at some point.
We all know JC will becasue that's what he's always done.
My argument on the doorstep is we have the unique opportunity in IN : a double win of Labour, plus a voice on the Left holding them to account.
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Post by n1david on Jun 23, 2024 20:48:45 GMT
* not "Labour" activists. That's the point, in a sense: 'cancelled Labour' "formerly Labour activists" |
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Post by oxfordsimon on Jun 23, 2024 20:52:27 GMT
If the number of Labour MPs hits the 450+ mark, the government payroll will be the smallest percentage of the governing parliamentary party in a very, very long time. This means the potential for promotion is limited.
That is going to make party discipline harder than with a small majority.
No vote is crucial. Whipping won't have the same effect.
There will be many MPs who are pretty unknown to party bosses and who were selected for unwinnable seats and then just happened to win.
We saw this on a smaller scale with the SNP sweeping the Scottish seats.
It is going to fascinating to watch how this develops as the potential for internal conflict is increased the larger the majority gets.
The largest opposition force may, in the end, be the anti Starmer gang on the backbenches.
Yes, the Tory party has a few years of internal strife ahead as it seeks to rebuild.
And the SNP problems are yet to fully play out.
So lots for political nerds to enjoy!
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Post by theglenbucklaird on Jun 24, 2024 7:25:50 GMT
If the number of Labour MPs hits the 450+ mark, the government payroll will be the smallest percentage of the governing parliamentary party in a very, very long time. This means the potential for promotion is limited. That is going to make party discipline harder than with a small majority. No vote is crucial. Whipping won't have the same effect. There will be many MPs who are pretty unknown to party bosses and who were selected for unwinnable seats and then just happened to win. We saw this on a smaller scale with the SNP sweeping the Scottish seats. It is going to fascinating to watch how this develops as the potential for internal conflict is increased the larger the majority gets. The largest opposition force may, in the end, be the anti Starmer gang on the backbenches. Yes, the Tory party has a few years of internal strife ahead as it seeks to rebuild. And the SNP problems are yet to fully play out. So lots for political nerds to enjoy! Not sure there are too many anti-Starmerists standing. Party has done a ‘great’ job weeding them out. Party is just bland centre rightness now |
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Post by oxfordsimon on Jun 24, 2024 7:46:49 GMT
There are plenty of potential rebels who will be back in the house plus those new likely MPs who have slipped under the radar.
Abbott is going to be a thorn in his side for certain. Then you have people like Burgon and others of his ilk.
Yes. A few ardent Corbynistas were deselected but many on that wing of the party are very much still there.
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Post by jojo on Jun 24, 2024 9:43:19 GMT
Okay thanks for that and this is very interesting as everything around you is going yellow and it is very possible Runnymede and Weybridge will flip. Looking on election map, there is only 1.4% between Liberals and Tories, which is a difference of 544 votes electionmaps.uk/nowcast, A Survation poll shows a Tory majority of 2.4% www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/. So with the betting scandal, traditional Tory voters will either go Liberal/Reform/stay at home throwing. I expect this to tighten and in a fortnight year seat could be yellow. Yeah I'm a bit skeptical about the ones saying Lib Dem are the main challengers. Labour have been second in every election except one since the seat was created and they are the ones who have been making the bigger gains at council level. It's quite a split constituency so I think it's hard to predict. The crucial point to remember in a lot of these traditionally safe Tory seats that have had large majorities is that it's not enough for opposition voters to coalesce around either Labour or the LibDems (or Greens). As an absolute minimum it needs lots of people who voted Tory last time to not vote for them, but when there was a very large majority that may not be enough, and what is really required is for a good chunk of those who voted Tory last time to vote for the main opposition challenger. Whether it's easier to persuade people to go from Tory=>Labour or Tory=>LibDem will depend on a number of factors, including views on Brexit, levels of education, and local factors including council results and the individuals involved. The seat prediction models have limitations, and John Curtice was being interviewed saying they are fine for general trends in particular areas, or for particular demographics, but have limitations for what will happen in a particular constituency. Looking at what happened in local elections across the whole constituency is a good predictor, but also how many leaflets are you getting? If you are not getting a lot from Labour then it means they either know they'll win it easily, or they aren't trying to wing it. There is a list somewhere of "non-battleground" seats. The other clue is when was the candidate selected? Where possible parties select candidates for winnable seats early. |
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Post by vdcni on Jun 24, 2024 11:59:48 GMT
I've had one Lib Dem leaflet and nothing else though I've seen the Tory and Labour candidates campaigning.
Labour and Tory candidates same as the last election, Lib Dem is new.
It's not considered a Labour battleground seat but it is also way down the list of Lib Dem targets 65th or something.
Yeah the MRP results/predictions are interesting but based on my knowledge of the area I just can't see why they think the Lib Dems are more likely to make the surge than Labour.
Tacticalvote.co.uk can't give a recommendation so think it's probably OK to vote for whoever I like.
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Post by Dawnstar on Jun 24, 2024 12:39:15 GMT
We're getting what feels like endless leaflets from the Lib Dems. Given they try to position themselves as a party who cares about the environment, they could start by not wasting so many trees!
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Post by blamerobots on Jun 24, 2024 12:56:04 GMT
Tory leaflet came through today rife with spelling mistakes, sentences which make little to no sense and such obvious staged photos.
I really don't know how this got past anyone doing a second read or spellcheck or something.
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Post by thedrowsychaperone on Jun 24, 2024 13:29:42 GMT
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Post by marob on Jun 24, 2024 14:56:07 GMT
Had a leaflet from my hopefully soon-to-be-defeated Tory MP, who is also no stranger to a photo op. One dressed as nurse, one in police uniform, one in army camouflage*, one in overalls on a farm…
(*She warns this is a “pre-war not post-war era. Cheery message.)
The spellings fine, but lots of dodgy punctuation and ran dom ex tra spa ces. I also like the small text on Welsh Conservatives, which only appears twice in the six pages. Two pictures of Rishi, one partly obscured by a shaded text box.
It’s quite funny because it tries to make her look a really important part of the Government, while at the same time trying to distance her from it.
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Post by jojo on Jun 24, 2024 15:17:05 GMT
I've had one Lib Dem leaflet and nothing else though I've seen the Tory and Labour candidates campaigning. Labour and Tory candidates same as the last election, Lib Dem is new. It's not considered a Labour battleground seat but it is also way down the list of Lib Dem targets 65th or something. Yeah the MRP results/predictions are interesting but based on my knowledge of the area I just can't see why they think the Lib Dems are more likely to make the surge than Labour. Tacticalvote.co.uk can't give a recommendation so think it's probably OK to vote for whoever I like. Yes. There are some constituencies where even the most keen 'get the Tories out' voter should just vote for what they want and/or the individual candidate they think will make a good constituency MP. Trying to second guess how everyone else will vote is a waste of energy, and while I don't blame parties for insisting they are the ones who can win - a lot of 'anti-Tory' energy was wasted on non-Tories in 2019 with activists getting angry at each other in seats where there wasn't an obvious challenger. The consequence being bad blood between activists getting in the way of tactical voting in seats where there was an obvious challenger. For clarification, being selected for the first time at this election isn't meaningful. More if you know they were selected by the local party several months ago then you know the local party is serious about campaigning hard, and in many cases will have been preparing their campaign before the election was officially called. This election is interesting, because seats that would have been considered hopeless are beginning to come into play. There may be some candidates who wouldn't have passed vetting if they were expected to win. |
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Post by vdcni on Jun 24, 2024 15:21:48 GMT
I just meant she's new to me as she hadn't stood at the last election not that her being new meant anything.
Anyway just got a Labour leaflet in, posted through by the candidate. They're quoting a Survation MRP which has them in second ahead of the Libs so yes will just vote whoever I want.
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 24, 2024 18:25:16 GMT
Runnymeade and Weybridge will be yellow, I bet £10 on it.
No opinion has shown R&W going yellow yet, but everything else around is seeming to and surprisingly Maidenhead is predicted too, that has no Reform candidate running and is a former Prime Ministers seat which both makes it even more surprising,. The Libs only need to campaign hard in 30-40 seats, where Rishi needs to campaign in 300 seats, which is not possible. You just know Ed Davey is going to do a big publicity stunt before the election too.
There are factors which will stop people voting Tory, a few I can think of is;
Brexit
Reform Party
Party Shelf Life (Party Stale)
Health
Crime.
Tactical voting
High Taxes
High Immigration
Sleeve
ECONOMY
I just think people see Labour/Libs as a viable alternative, which option wasn’t available in 2019.
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 24, 2024 18:26:01 GMT
I also got an email from Imelda Staunton on behalf of the Labour Party.
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Post by aspieandy on Jun 24, 2024 18:33:12 GMT
tbf, you got a begging letter/email, as did a couple of hundred thousand others.
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Post by Phantom of London on Jun 24, 2024 19:04:21 GMT
I get that, how did Imelda know I am a Labour supporter and a theatre Dan though?
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Post by parsley1 on Jun 24, 2024 22:53:51 GMT
I also got an email from Imelda Staunton on behalf of the Labour Party. Yes I am sure she has been badly affected by the current cost of living crisis And is suffering badly Doing a job which is obviously massively important and which without society would surely collapse What a joke |
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Post by alicechallice on Jun 24, 2024 23:09:51 GMT
I also got an email from Imelda Staunton on behalf of the Labour Party. Yes I am sure she has been badly affected by the current cost of living crisis And is suffering badly Doing a job which is obviously massively important and which without society would surely collapse What a joke How can you suggest her job isn't important when you're posting on THEATREBOARD FFS?!!! |
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Post by parsley1 on Jun 24, 2024 23:48:02 GMT
Yes I am sure she has been badly affected by the current cost of living crisis And is suffering badly Doing a job which is obviously massively important and which without society would surely collapse What a joke How can you suggest her job isn't important when you're posting on THEATREBOARD FFS?!!! She would be better off campaigning to sell tickets for her latest show sharpish Rather than airing her political views |
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Post by osdtdg on Jun 24, 2024 23:55:52 GMT
How can you suggest her job isn't important when you're posting on THEATREBOARD FFS?!!! She would be better off campaigning to sell tickets for her latest show sharpish Rather than airing her political views She is a citizen exercising her right to political views? And to vote? I'm not sure what the problem is? The show is selling fine, for now largely due to the show name and her anyway? Like, she is capable of doing both?? |
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Post by Someone in a tree on Jun 25, 2024 7:46:48 GMT
Regarding la Staunton's letter is Biggins, Gary Barlow and Jim Davidson doing something similar for Rishi ?
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Post by parsley1 on Jun 25, 2024 8:18:25 GMT
She would be better off campaigning to sell tickets for her latest show sharpish Rather than airing her political views She is a citizen exercising her right to political views? And to vote? I'm not sure what the problem is? The show is selling fine, for now largely due to the show name and her anyway? Like, she is capable of doing both?? It is not the point of this thread But based on the LW site and seating plans I don’t define that as “selling fine” Not in any capacity of a limited run |
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